WTI Technical Analysis: The Breakdown That Wasn’t

Expected next development: WTI has once again tested the lower boundary of its rising channel, but the market has not yet confirmed a breakdown. Price moved below the channel intraday, but the daily candle closed back above it. For now, the larger bullish structure remains intact. The next important question is whether buyers can push WTI back above $92 and toward the $94–96 area, or whether sellers will make another attempt to break the channel.

The Breakdown That Wasn’t

In my previous WTI analysis, I expected the market to revisit the lower part of the rising channel before making its next significant move. That scenario has now played out almost exactly as expected.
WTI moved lower and once again reached the lower boundary of the rising channel. More importantly, the market briefly moved below this support during the session.
However, the daily candle did not confirm the breakdown.
Instead, price recovered and the daily candle closed back above the channel.
This is an important distinction. An intraday break can be a warning, but without a daily close below the trendline, I do not consider the bullish structure broken yet.
The lower channel remains the key level to watch.

What Has Changed Since the Previous Analysis?

Technically, the biggest change is actually the repeated test of the same support.
In the previous analysis, the lower channel was approaching an important test. Now we have the test — and the market has once again shown buyers defending the area.
This makes the $88–89 zone increasingly important.
The market has already demonstrated that sellers can push WTI toward and even temporarily below this area. What they have not been able to do so far is keep price there and produce a confirmed daily close below the channel.
That tells us that there is still demand underneath the market.
At the same time, the repeated tests are something I do not want to ignore. Every additional test of a trendline increases the importance of the eventual breakout. The longer this battle continues, the more significant the next confirmed move should become.
For now, however, the channel is still holding.

Daily Chart: The Bullish Structure Remains Intact

The daily chart continues to show a rising channel that has been developing since the major summer low.
WTI has now moved from the upper part of the channel back toward the lower boundary, creating another test of the trend structure.
The important thing is that the market remains above the major longer-term support around $82–83.
As long as the lower channel remains intact, I still view the current decline as a correction inside the broader bullish structure rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
The first major support remains around $88–89.
Below that, I would watch $86, followed by the much more important $82–83 region.
A daily close below $88–89 would therefore be the first serious warning that the current structure is weakening.
A move below $82–83 would be a much more significant technical development.

H4 Chart: Sellers Still Cannot Confirm the Break

The H4 chart shows the latest move more clearly.
WTI pushed down through the lower channel, but the move did not develop into a confirmed breakdown. Buyers appeared around the lower part of the structure and price moved back toward the $90 area.
This is exactly why I prefer to wait for confirmation rather than react to an intraday break.
The market is currently sitting between the lower support and the first important resistance.
The area around $88.35 remains an important short-term reference level.
Above the current price, $92 is the first level I would like to see reclaimed.
A sustained move above $92 would improve the short-term bullish picture and could open the way toward $94–96.
That is currently the next important upside zone.

$92 Is the First Test for Buyers

At the moment, the market is essentially caught between two important levels.
Below:
$88–89 — rising channel support
Above:
$92 — first important resistance
If buyers can reclaim $92 and hold above it, the market could begin another move toward the middle and upper part of the channel.
The $94–96 area is therefore the next important target.
A clean break above this region would significantly strengthen the bullish setup and could eventually bring the previous major high around $105–106 back into focus.
But I would not anticipate that move too early.
First, WTI needs to prove that it can get away from the lower part of the channel.

The Repeated Tests Are Becoming Important

There is another interesting element developing on the chart.
The lower channel has now been tested several times.
This is important because a trendline is not a permanent guarantee of support. The more frequently price returns to the same level, the more important the eventual reaction becomes.
There are two possible outcomes.
The first is another rejection from the lower channel. If that happens and price then breaks above $92, it would suggest that buyers have successfully defended the broader structure once again.
The second possibility is a confirmed daily close below the channel. In that case, the market would finally give us the confirmation that has been missing during the latest attempts.
Until one of these scenarios happens, WTI remains in a relatively neutral zone around $90.

Fundamentals: The Picture Is More Complicated Than Before

The fundamental situation has also changed since my previous analysis.
One of the most important developments has been the improvement in Middle Eastern crude flows. More oil is finding alternative routes to the market, which reduces some of the immediate supply pressure that previously supported prices.
At the same time, the recovery is not complete and the logistics problem remains important.
Oil can technically be available, but that does not necessarily mean that it can reach the refinery or end consumer easily, cheaply and without additional risk.
Shipping costs, insurance, longer routes and continued geopolitical uncertainty can therefore keep a significant risk premium in the market even when crude production and exports begin to recover.
This is one reason why the current price action remains so interesting.
The fundamental picture is no longer simply about a lack of crude.
It is increasingly about how reliably the available barrels can move through the global supply chain.

U.S. Inventories Remain Another Piece of the Puzzle

U.S. inventories are another factor I will continue watching closely.
The latest official numbers showed commercial crude inventories around 427 million barrels, meaning inventories have started to recover from some of the extremely tight levels seen during the previous period of supply disruption.
However, inventory levels alone do not tell the entire story.
The market also needs to consider refinery demand, product inventories, exports and the availability of crude in different regions.
This is particularly important now because the oil market is dealing with a very different situation from a normal inventory cycle.
A large amount of uncertainty is still coming from geopolitics and transportation rather than simply from U.S. production.

The Bigger Picture Has Not Broken Yet

Despite the recent weakness, the larger chart still looks different from a confirmed bearish reversal.
WTI remains inside the rising channel.
The longer-term support around $82–83 is still well below the current market.
And, most importantly, the latest attempt to break the lower channel has not produced a daily confirmation.
That is why I am not changing the overall technical view yet.
The market is testing the bullish structure, but it has not broken it.

My Current WTI View

My view remains cautiously bullish as long as the rising channel holds.
The latest move below the channel was important, but the daily close back above it means that I still need confirmation before turning bearish.
For me, the key levels are now very clear:
$88–89: lower channel support and the most important level for the current structure.
$86: next support if the channel fails.
$82–83: major longer-term support and a much more important bearish level.
$92: first resistance and the level buyers need to reclaim.
$94–96: next major upside zone.
$105–106: previous major high and larger resistance.
The bullish scenario is therefore still valid while the channel holds.
A move above $92 would be the first sign that buyers are gaining momentum again, while a break through $94–96 would make the upside structure considerably more interesting.
On the other hand, a confirmed daily close below $88–89 would change my view and make $86 the next important target.
For now, however, the message from the chart is quite simple:
Sellers tried to break the floor.
They managed to push below it intraday.
But they could not keep WTI there.
The breakdown was attempted.
The breakdown was not confirmed.
The channel still holds.