WTI Daily Update – November 4, 2026: A Major Breakdown Below the Rising Channel

This analysis is being written approximately two hours before the daily candle closes. All price levels and observations reflect the market situation at the time of writing. The final daily close is still pending and will be crucial in determining whether today's breakdown below the rising channel is confirmed.

WTI is experiencing one of its sharpest sell-offs in recent months. Today's price action has pushed crude decisively below the lower boundary of the rising daily channel that had contained the market for several months. Political developments, changing expectations surrounding the Iran conflict and a deteriorating global supply-demand outlook are creating a powerful bearish combination. But what does this mean for the daily chart, and where could the market go from here?

1. Political shock: Democrats take control of Congress

The US midterm elections have delivered a major victory for the Democrats, who have taken control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The result represents a significant political setback for Donald Trump, with the Iran conflict and rising living costs among the major issues influencing voters.

Vice President JD Vance openly acknowledged that the war contributed to the Republican defeat, questioning whether its political cost had been worth it. Trump also acknowledged the role of the conflict, although he pointed to several other factors behind the result.

This changes the political calculation in Washington.

Democratic control of Congress could increase pressure on the administration to reconsider its military strategy and pursue a diplomatic solution with Tehran.

For oil markets, the possibility of reduced military escalation means that part of the geopolitical risk premium previously priced into crude could begin to disappear.

However, this remains an expectation rather than a confirmed resolution. The geopolitical situation is still fragile, and further escalation cannot be ruled out.

Source: Reuters, November 4, 2026.

2. JPMorgan sees the oil market returning to surplus

Another important development comes from JPMorgan.

According to its latest assessment, the global oil market returned to a surplus of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.

The bank points to recovering Middle Eastern exports, increasing production in other regions and weaker global demand.

Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered to approximately 20.7 million barrels per day, compared with just 9.8 million in March. Meanwhile, global oil demand has reportedly fallen by approximately 3.3 million barrels per day since the beginning of the conflict.

JPMorgan also estimates that Latin America is supplying approximately 1.5 million barrels per day more crude than a year ago, with Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina contributing to the increase.

This is an important change in the fundamental picture. The market is increasingly considering not only the possibility of reduced geopolitical disruption, but also the possibility that returning supply could exceed consumption.

Source: Reuters / JPMorgan, November 4, 2026.

3. Daily chart: The rising channel has finally broken

Now comes the most important part of today's update: the technical picture.

For months, WTI respected the rising daily channel, with repeated reactions along its upper, middle and lower trendlines.

The lower boundary was particularly important because it identified the critical decision area where the market would eventually have to choose between another bounce and a structural breakdown.

That moment has finally arrived.

The daily chart currently shows:

• Open: $96.81

• High: $97.15

• Low: $87.13

• Current price: $88.41

• Daily change: -8.63%

Price has moved decisively below the lower channel boundary, accompanied by an exceptionally large bearish daily candle.

The important question now is whether the market can recover above the broken trendline before the daily session closes.

A confirmed daily close below the channel would significantly weaken the previous bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction.

4. Important daily support and resistance levels

The first important area is the green demand zone around $86.70–89.00.

This is where buyers may attempt to defend the market. It is particularly important because the current daily candle has already entered this zone.

If this support fails, the next areas worth monitoring are:

• $78–81: Previous demand and consolidation area.

• $73–77: A broader historical demand zone.

• $67–70: Major lower discount area and previous swing-low region.

On the upside, the broken channel and the previous consolidation area around $92–94 could become important resistance.

The larger supply zone around $98.50–102.50 also remains relevant if the market manages a substantial recovery.

5. What happens next?

There are two important scenarios to consider.

Bearish scenario:

A confirmed daily close below the rising channel, followed by an inability to reclaim the broken trendline, would strengthen the case for further downside.

The first important test remains the $86.70–89.00 demand zone. A sustained breakdown below this area could open the way towards the next major demand zones around $78–81.

Recovery scenario:

Buyers manage to defend the current demand zone and push price back above the broken channel.

This could indicate that the breakdown needs further confirmation and that a deeper correction is not yet established.

One important distinction: breaking a rising channel does not automatically mean that the entire long-term bullish trend has ended. It means the previous technical structure has been invalidated and the market needs to establish a new one.

Conclusion

Today's move brings together several developments that have been building for weeks: political pressure to end the Iran conflict, expectations of reduced geopolitical risk, recovering oil exports and growing concerns about a global supply surplus.

The daily chart has now reached the critical turning point that the rising channel had been identifying for months.

The lower trendline presented the market with two possibilities: another bounce or a breakdown. Today, price has moved below it, and the market is now testing an important demand zone.

Whether this becomes the beginning of a much larger bearish move will depend on how the market behaves around the newly broken channel and the current support area.

For now, the most important thing is not to anticipate the outcome but to watch the daily close.

The daily candle will tell us much more than the intraday noise.